Insights
Analysis and commentary on shipping, procurement, supply chain and commodity markets.
Some of this was written here. Some first appeared on LinkedIn and is reproduced or reworked, with its origin recorded on the piece itself.
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A Weather Working Day is not simply about whether bad weather delayed the vessel. The Vorras shows why the distinction matters: the wording defines what kind of time counts as laytime in the first place.
The threat of a US tariff on refined copper has already pulled an extraordinary amount of metal into American warehouses. No tariff has been imposed, but the uncertainty itself has created something close to a privately funded strategic stockpile.
VLCC volumes fell as Hormuz disrupted traditional Gulf flows, but longer Atlantic-to-Asia voyages absorbed more vessel time. That has supported freight despite fewer barrels moving — but the effect could unwind quickly if trade routes normalise.
Iran asked ships to pay for passage through Hormuz. Now the US is proposing its own charge for providing security. The bigger concern is not the price, but the precedent: once free transit through an international strait becomes negotiable, the principle itself starts to weaken.
Copper treatment charges have collapsed, but Chinese smelters are still producing. The reason is increasingly found in the by-products: sulfuric acid, gold and silver are helping replace a processing margin that has effectively disappeared.
Oil prices are falling as the market prices a reopening of Hormuz, but tanker rates and insurance are telling a less comfortable story. Cargo is starting to move again, yet ships remain scarce and the physical system is still far from normal.
Copper is near record highs, yet the copper/gold ratio is back at levels associated with much weaker growth. The question is whether the signal still works when both metals are being driven by forces that have little to do with the traditional cycle.
Originally published on LinkedIn, 17 June 2026
Gold’s 2026 correction looks less like a safe-haven story and more like a real-yield story. It fell as the Iran war pushed inflation and rates higher, then began to recover as a Hormuz agreement eased that pressure.
Originally published on LinkedIn, 15 June 2026
Copper prices are getting the attention, but the real strain is showing up further down the chain. With treatment charges at zero and smelter margins under pressure, refined supply may be less secure than the headline price suggests.
Originally published on LinkedIn, 10 June 2026
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