Insights
Analysis and commentary on shipping, procurement, supply chain and commodity markets.
Some of this was written here. Some first appeared on LinkedIn and is reproduced or reworked, with its origin recorded on the piece itself.
5 articles
VLCC volumes fell as Hormuz disrupted traditional Gulf flows, but longer Atlantic-to-Asia voyages absorbed more vessel time. That has supported freight despite fewer barrels moving — but the effect could unwind quickly if trade routes normalise.
Iran asked ships to pay for passage through Hormuz. Now the US is proposing its own charge for providing security. The bigger concern is not the price, but the precedent: once free transit through an international strait becomes negotiable, the principle itself starts to weaken.
Oil prices are falling as the market prices a reopening of Hormuz, but tanker rates and insurance are telling a less comfortable story. Cargo is starting to move again, yet ships remain scarce and the physical system is still far from normal.
The futures curve suggests the disruption eventually eases. But with inventories being drawn, demand already adjusting and Gulf supply still constrained, the physical market may be relying on a thinner cushion than prices imply.
Originally published on LinkedIn, 3 June 2026
The closure of Hormuz delivered a major shock to tanker markets, but trade adapted through rerouting, longer voyages and greater vessel-day absorption.
Originally published on LinkedIn, 1 May 2026
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