Insights
Analysis and commentary on shipping, procurement, supply chain and commodity markets.
Some of this was written here. Some first appeared on LinkedIn and is reproduced or reworked, with its origin recorded on the piece itself.
8 articles
The threat of a US tariff on refined copper has already pulled an extraordinary amount of metal into American warehouses. No tariff has been imposed, but the uncertainty itself has created something close to a privately funded strategic stockpile.
VLCC volumes fell as Hormuz disrupted traditional Gulf flows, but longer Atlantic-to-Asia voyages absorbed more vessel time. That has supported freight despite fewer barrels moving — but the effect could unwind quickly if trade routes normalise.
Iran asked ships to pay for passage through Hormuz. Now the US is proposing its own charge for providing security. The bigger concern is not the price, but the precedent: once free transit through an international strait becomes negotiable, the principle itself starts to weaken.
Copper treatment charges have collapsed, but Chinese smelters are still producing. The reason is increasingly found in the by-products: sulfuric acid, gold and silver are helping replace a processing margin that has effectively disappeared.
Oil prices are falling as the market prices a reopening of Hormuz, but tanker rates and insurance are telling a less comfortable story. Cargo is starting to move again, yet ships remain scarce and the physical system is still far from normal.
Copper prices are getting the attention, but the real strain is showing up further down the chain. With treatment charges at zero and smelter margins under pressure, refined supply may be less secure than the headline price suggests.
Originally published on LinkedIn, 10 June 2026
The futures curve suggests the disruption eventually eases. But with inventories being drawn, demand already adjusting and Gulf supply still constrained, the physical market may be relying on a thinner cushion than prices imply.
Originally published on LinkedIn, 3 June 2026
The closure of Hormuz delivered a major shock to tanker markets, but trade adapted through rerouting, longer voyages and greater vessel-day absorption.
Originally published on LinkedIn, 1 May 2026
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